Fushata n\u00eb zgjerim e Ukrain\u00ebs me dron\u00eb kund\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebs energjetike ruse ngre mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb Kievi t\u00eb zhvendos\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb fokusit t\u00eb tij nga rafinerit\u00eb dhe logjistika e naft\u00ebs te asetet e LNG-s\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb mbetur kryesisht t\u00eb paprekura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kievi ka intensifikuar sulmet ndaj rafinerive ruse t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb muajt e fundit, duke shkaktuar mungesa t\u00eb karburantit n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin. Frekuenca e sulmeve ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb mbahet, me Presidentin ukrainas Volodymyr Zelenskiy q\u00eb shpalli m\u00eb 26 qershor nj\u00eb operacion 40-ditor kund\u00ebr objektivave ruse t\u00eb energjis\u00eb “p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndikuar shtetin agresor n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion p\u00ebr t’i dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund luft\u00ebs”. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nd\u00ebr sulmet m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ishte ai n\u00eb rafinerin\u00eb e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb m\u00eb 18 qershor, i cili thuhet se e ka b\u00ebr\u00eb uzin\u00ebn p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebse p\u00ebr 40% t\u00eb karburantit t\u00eb kryeqytetit t\u00eb pap\u00ebrdorshme p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Infrastruktura e naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb mbetet objektivi prioritar i Ukrain\u00ebs. Rafinerit\u00eb, depot dhe terminalet ruse t\u00eb naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb nj\u00eb lidhje m\u00eb t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme me p\u00ebrpjekjet e luft\u00ebs dhe logjistik\u00ebn ushtarake, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb ua sjellin luft\u00ebn n\u00eb mendje shofer\u00ebve t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm rus\u00eb. Por Kievi mund ta zgjeroj\u00eb gjithashtu fushat\u00ebn e tij drejt LNG-s\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur koston ekonomike dhe buxhetore p\u00ebr Mosk\u00ebn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraina deri m\u00eb tani i ka shmangur objektivat e LNG-s\u00eb, ndoshta p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb presionit nga aleat\u00ebt e saj per\u00ebndimor\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt kan\u00eb frik\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb ndikimi do t\u00eb kishte kjo n\u00eb tregun global. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, SHBA-t\u00eb dhe aleat\u00ebt e saj evropian\u00eb shmang\u00ebn sanksionet ndaj pjes\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb kapacitetit operativ t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb uzin\u00ebn e LNG-s\u00eb Yamal me 17 milion\u00eb ton n\u00eb vit n\u00eb Arktik, q\u00eb i sh\u00ebrben kryesisht Evrop\u00ebs, dhe uzin\u00ebn e LNG-s\u00eb Sakhalin me 11 milion\u00eb ton n\u00eb vit n\u00eb Lindjen e Larg\u00ebt, e cila d\u00ebrgon pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb gazit t\u00eb saj n\u00eb Japoni. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, sanksionet jan\u00eb aplikuar vet\u00ebm ndaj impiantit m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl rus t\u00eb l\u00ebng\u00ebzimit dhe terminalit t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb Arktike me 20 milion\u00eb ton n\u00eb vit, t\u00eb lan\u00e7uar s\u00eb fundmi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Evropa do t\u00eb ishte ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e ekspozuar ndaj \u00e7do nd\u00ebrprerjeje n\u00eb furnizimet ruse me LNG. Edhe pse BE-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb zotuar t\u00eb heq\u00eb gradualisht t\u00eb gjith\u00eb gazin e mbetur rus deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2027, importet e saj t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb ruse mbeten kok\u00ebfort\u00ebsisht t\u00eb larta – ato u rrit\u00ebn me 4% t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb maj, pavar\u00ebsisht nj\u00eb ndalimi p\u00ebr kontratat afatshkurtra t\u00eb furnizimit q\u00eb hyri n\u00eb fuqi m\u00eb 25 prill. Kjo u nxit kryesisht nga dyfishimi i importeve t\u00eb Spanj\u00ebs nga Rusia gjat\u00eb muajit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7mimet e LNG-s\u00eb kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb q\u00eb nga kulmi i luft\u00ebs SHBA-Iran, por ende mbeten t\u00eb larta krahasuar me nivelet para konfliktit. N\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, benchmark-u kryesor i gazit TTF ende tregtohet me nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn m\u00eb lart. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00ebse BE-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb efektive n\u00eb shk\u00ebputjen nga LNG-ja ruse gjat\u00eb muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, Ukraina mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200bp\u00ebr t\u00eb synuar objektet dhe tanker\u00ebt rus\u00eb t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb pa rrezikuar nj\u00eb reagim t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr nga bler\u00ebsit evropian\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Ukraina mund t\u2019i sulmoj\u00eb k\u00ebto asete gjithsesi, n\u00ebse mundet. Kievi e ka injoruar presionin nga aleat\u00ebt e saj per\u00ebndimor\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb – duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe sh\u00ebnjestrimin e terminaleve ruse t\u00eb eksportit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb prill dhe m\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb cisternave n\u00eb Detin e Zi, edhe pse \u00e7mimet globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs po rriteshin si rezultat i mbylljes s\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit nga Irani. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sa i p\u00ebrket sulmeve ndaj cisternave ruse t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb, ekziston tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb precedent. M\u00eb 4 mars, dron\u00eb detar\u00eb ukrainas godit\u00ebn transportuesin Arctic Metagaz n\u00eb Mesdhe, duke shkaktuar d\u00ebme t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Metagaz ishte pjes\u00eb e flot\u00ebs n\u00eb hije t\u00eb cisternave t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb q\u00eb Rusia po p\u00ebrdor p\u00ebr t\u00eb eksportuar ngarkesa nga projekti i sanksionuar Arctic LNG-2. Anije t\u00eb tjera gjithashtu mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht kur lundrojn\u00eb drejt Azis\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet rrug\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb gjata jugore n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb drejt lindjes n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Rrug\u00ebs Detare Veriore. Por ky rrezik mund t\u00eb leht\u00ebsohet gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa rruga Arktike hapet, duke i lejuar Rusis\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ngarkesa direkt n\u00eb lindje n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet uj\u00ebrave t\u00eb saj veriore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prandaj, v\u00ebmendja e Kievit mund t\u00eb kthehet te impiantet e l\u00ebng\u00ebzimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb. Projektet m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuara jan\u00eb uzina e gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm Portovaya me kapacitet 1.5 milion\u00eb ton n\u00eb vit e Gazprom-it dhe terminali Cryogas-Vysotsk me kapacitet 1 milion\u00eb ton n\u00eb vit i Novatek-ut n\u00eb rajonin e Leningradit n\u00eb veriper\u00ebndim t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb. T\u00eb dy projektet jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00ebn sanksione per\u00ebndimore, duke eliminuar rrezikun e nd\u00ebrprerjeve t\u00eb furnizimit evropian dhe duke zvog\u00ebluar mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e zem\u00ebrimit per\u00ebndimor ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs p\u00ebr shkak se i ka sh\u00ebnjestruar ato. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
P\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimet n\u00eb aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e dron\u00ebve ukrainas ngren\u00eb gjithashtu mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e sulmeve t\u00eb mundshme edhe ndaj objekteve t\u00eb larg\u00ebta ruse t\u00eb Arctic LNG-2 dhe Yamal LNG. Pas nj\u00eb sulmi me dron kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb rafinerie nafte n\u00eb rajonin rus t\u00eb Siberis\u00eb Per\u00ebndimore, Tyumen, mbi 2,000 km larg Ukrain\u00ebs, Zelenskiy pretendoi m\u00eb 21 qershor se ata tani mund t\u00eb godisnin objektiva deri n\u00eb 3,000 km larg. N\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, kjo do t’i vendoste si Arctic LNG-2 ashtu edhe Yamal LNG brenda rrezes s\u00eb veprimit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb Ukraina mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht ndonj\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm n\u00eb asnj\u00ebr\u00ebn prej k\u00ebtyre objekteve. Rrezja kryesore e nj\u00eb droni nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb me shtrirjen e garantuar operative. Ngarkesa, moti dhe mbrojtja ajrore kan\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi. Sa m\u00eb larg t\u00eb jet\u00eb objektivi, aq m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb b\u00ebhet t\u00eb shkaktosh d\u00ebme dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur. Por implikimi strategjik \u00ebsht\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm: Rusia nuk mund t\u00eb supozoj\u00eb m\u00eb se vet\u00ebm distanca mbron asetet e saj t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Shkurt, grevat n\u00eb objektet e Portovaya ose Vysotsk do t\u00eb kishin nj\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb kufizuar global, dhe nj\u00eb grev\u00eb n\u00eb Arctic LNG-2 do t\u00eb ndikonte vet\u00ebm n\u00eb disa d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb Kin\u00eb – vet\u00ebm dy nga tre trenat e terminalit jan\u00eb n\u00eb funksion, duke eksportuar n\u00ebn 4 milion\u00eb ton LNG n\u00eb vit, ekskluzivisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb port t\u00eb vet\u00ebm kinez. Por nj\u00eb sulm ndaj Yamal LNG do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb do t\u00eb trondiste tregun, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr Evrop\u00ebn. Pothuajse i gjith\u00eb LNG-ja ruse q\u00eb BE ende importon vjen nga kjo fabrik\u00eb e vetme, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se edhe nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje q\u00eb zgjat disa jav\u00eb do t\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb \u00e7mimet evropiane dhe sigurin\u00eb e furnizimit t\u00eb kontinentit, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn derisa BE t\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb p\u00ebrparim dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs n\u00eb heqjen graduale t\u00eb furnizimit t\u00eb mbetur.\/intellinews<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fushata n\u00eb zgjerim e Ukrain\u00ebs me dron\u00eb kund\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebs energjetike ruse ngre mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb Kievi t\u00eb zhvendos\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb fokusit t\u00eb tij nga rafinerit\u00eb dhe logjistika e naft\u00ebs te asetet e LNG-s\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb mbetur kryesisht t\u00eb paprekura. Kievi ka intensifikuar sulmet ndaj rafinerive ruse t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb muajt e fundit, duke shkaktuar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":22225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analize"],"yoast_head":"\n