{"id":2622,"date":"2026-03-01T19:38:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T19:38:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kosovatimes.info\/?p=2622"},"modified":"2026-03-01T19:38:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T19:38:47","slug":"sa-mund-te-ndikoje-lufta-ne-tregjet-e-naftes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kosovatimes.info\/index.php\/2026\/03\/01\/sa-mund-te-ndikoje-lufta-ne-tregjet-e-naftes\/","title":{"rendered":"Sa mund te ndikoje lufta ne tregjet e naftes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mes shk\u00ebmbimeve intensive t\u00eb goditjeve midis SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb dhe Iranit nga ana tjet\u00ebr, rreziqet p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi. Pika kryesore e ndezjes \u00ebsht\u00eb Ngushtica e Hormuzit. Ajo shtrihet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregdetit jugor t\u00eb Iranit dhe mbetet nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb ky\u00e7e e furnizimit me energji nga Lindja e Mesme. K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi i nj\u00eb bllokade me siguri do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7mime m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs – pyetja e vetme \u00ebsht\u00eb se ku do t\u00eb ndalet kjo rritje. A duhet t\u00eb presim q\u00eb nj\u00eb fu\u00e7i nafte t\u00eb jet\u00eb 100? Si do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb \u00e7mimi i lart\u00eb i naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e vendeve t\u00eb ndryshme? Dhe \u00e7far\u00eb pasojash t\u00eb tjera mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb e re? Ky artikull bazohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb nga Financial Times<\/a> dhe  The Economist<\/a> .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb gjendjeje po i afrohet ekonomia globale nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb re t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7udit\u00ebrisht, \u00ebsht\u00eb mjaft e q\u00ebndrueshme. N\u00eb parashikimin e janarit, Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar priste<\/a> nj\u00eb rritje ekonomike globale prej 3.3% dhe nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim t\u00eb inflacionit global n\u00eb 3.8% deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2026, nd\u00ebrsa tregjet e aksioneve n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb globin u rrit\u00ebn n\u00eb nivele historike n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit – dhe kjo pavar\u00ebsisht tronditjeve t\u00eb rregullta, t\u00eb provokuara kryesisht nga administrata Donald Trump, t\u00eb tilla si luft\u00ebrat tarifore dhe sulmet ndaj Rezerv\u00ebs Federale t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, nj\u00eb sulm ndaj Iranit – dhe akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb, p\u00ebrgjigja e Iranit ndaj atij sulmi – krijon rrezikun e p\u00ebrfshirjes s\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, nj\u00eb treg ky\u00e7 p\u00ebr prodhimin dhe eksportin e naft\u00ebs, n\u00eb konflikt. Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerja e furnizimeve nga rajoni q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi kryesor q\u00eb paraqet nj\u00eb luft\u00eb e re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si\u00e7 v\u00ebren The Economist, kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb Trump ka p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzuar situat\u00ebn gjat\u00eb fundjavave – ai b\u00ebri t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb me luft\u00ebn 12-ditore me Iranin n\u00eb qershor 2025 dhe operacionin special p\u00ebr t\u00eb kapur Presidentin Venezuelan Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi amerikan duket se po u jep tregjeve koh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb peshuar t\u00eb gjitha rreziqet p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb hapet seanca tregtare e dit\u00ebve t\u00eb jav\u00ebs – por k\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb, pluhuri nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb qet\u00ebsohet plot\u00ebsisht, v\u00ebren botimi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb e pesta e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb naft\u00ebs (rreth 15 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i) dhe gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm q\u00eb u d\u00ebrgohet importuesve nga deti kalon n\u00ebp\u00ebr Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit \u00e7do dit\u00eb. K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi p\u00ebr bllokad\u00eb, i shprehur nga ushtria iraniane (megjith\u00ebse  i pakonfirmuar<\/a> nga Ministria e Pun\u00ebve t\u00eb Jashtme e vendit), ka \u00e7uar tashm\u00eb n\u00eb ankorimin e rreth 150 anijeve cistern\u00eb<\/a> jasht\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebs. T\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb anije, n\u00eb brigjet e Omanit, \u00ebsht\u00eb sulmuar; autori mbetet i paqart\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pyetja tani \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse SHBA-t\u00eb dhe partner\u00ebt e saj mund t\u00eb parandalojn\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb furnizimit me energji p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit. N\u00ebse eksportet vazhdojn\u00eb dhe rritjet e \u00e7mimeve frenohen nga vendimi i vendeve t\u00eb OPEC+ p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur prodhimin, d\u00ebmi p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kufizuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por n\u00ebse ngushtica b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb “zon\u00eb e vdekur” afatgjat\u00eb, nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs rrezikon t\u00eb nxis\u00eb inflacionin, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb vendet e zhvilluara, duke rrezikuar planet e bankave qendrore p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur normat e interesit dhe duke minuar besimin e biznesit.Sa mund t\u00eb rriten \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si\u00e7 i shpjegoi p\u00ebr Financial Times Edward Fishman, nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i lart\u00eb n\u00eb K\u00ebshillin p\u00ebr Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me Jasht\u00eb dhe ekspert mbi luft\u00ebn ekonomike q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin SHBA-n\u00eb, ekzistojn\u00eb dy skenar\u00eb kryesor\u00eb se si do t\u00eb zhvillohen ngjarjet n\u00eb tregjet e energjis\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skenari i par\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin “nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb konsiderueshme dhe t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha transporteve detare p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit, bllokad\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme detare n\u00eb bot\u00eb”. Kjo “do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb nj\u00eb tronditje kolosale p\u00ebr \u00e7mimet globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs”, beson eksperti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb, sipas parashikimeve t\u00eb analist\u00ebve t\u00eb cituar nga Financial Times dhe The Economist, mund t\u2019i shtyj\u00eb \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs mbi 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nafta e pap\u00ebrpunuar Brent tashm\u00eb i \u00ebsht\u00eb afruar nivelit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb shtat\u00ebmujor prej 73 dollar\u00ebsh, duke sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb rritje prej gati 12% brenda nj\u00eb muaji, mes pritjeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb midis SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit. Si\u00e7 vuri n\u00eb dukje analisti Tom Reed i Argus Media n\u00eb nj\u00eb koment p\u00ebr The Economist, \u00e7mimet e sotme jan\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht 10 dollar\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se sa vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb ekspert\u00ebt e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb drejt\u00eb, bazuar n\u00eb bazat e ofert\u00ebs dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit, shum\u00eb analist\u00eb prisnin nj\u00eb tepric\u00eb nafte t\u00eb shkaktuar nga rritja e furnizimit n\u00eb Gjirin e Meksik\u00ebs p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb. Kjo pritej t\u00eb ulte \u00e7mimet n\u00eb 55 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. Q\u00eb n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb shkurtit, Agjencia Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e Energjis\u00eb parashikoi nj\u00eb tepric\u00eb furnizimi prej mesatarisht 3.7 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb (bpd) n\u00eb vitin 2026. Megjithat\u00eb, parashikimi i nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb re i tejkaloi t\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebta faktor\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pas rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, \u00e7mimet e gazit natyror po rriten gjithashtu, duke ushtruar presion inflacionist n\u00eb shum\u00eb rajone t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ebrtet, nafta “n\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb” \u00ebsht\u00eb ende nj\u00eb skenar radikal. Nj\u00eb skenar m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm dhe m\u00eb pak i rreziksh\u00ebm, i p\u00ebrshkruar nga Fishman, \u00ebsht\u00eb se Ngushtica e Hormuzit nuk do t\u00eb mbyllet plot\u00ebsisht, por vet\u00ebm tregtia e naft\u00ebs iraniane do t\u00eb ndalet. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, rritjet e \u00e7mimeve jan\u00eb gjithashtu t\u00eb pashmangshme, por do t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb moderuara – n\u00eb 80 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, pret analisti. Si\u00e7 v\u00ebren Reuters, tregtar\u00ebt e naft\u00ebs raportuan<\/a> m\u00eb 1 mars se \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs bruto n\u00eb tregun jasht\u00eb burs\u00ebs ishin rritur tashm\u00eb n\u00eb 80 dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por edhe nj\u00eb efekt kaq i kufizuar mund t\u00eb kompensohet nga eksportues t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. M\u00eb 1 mars, OPEC+ njoftoi se do t\u00eb rriste prodhimin e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb prill me 206,000 fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb – grupi i udh\u00ebhequr nga Arabia Saudite synon t\u00eb qet\u00ebsoj\u00eb tregjet. Megjithat\u00eb, Financial Times v\u00ebren se rritja e kuotave e njoftuar ishte m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt nga sa kishin pritur disa analist\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nj\u00eb rritje e ndjeshme, por modeste e \u00e7mimit prej 10 dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i “nuk do t\u00eb ndikonte n\u00eb inflacionin [global] dhe rritjen ekonomike”, tha p\u00ebr Financial Times Neil Shearing, kryeekonomist n\u00eb firm\u00ebn k\u00ebrkimore Capital Economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ky optimiz\u00ebm midis disa ekspert\u00ebve buron nga fakti se, nd\u00ebrsa Irani mbetet nj\u00eb furnizues i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i naft\u00ebs p\u00ebr disa vende, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb thelb\u00ebsor p\u00ebr konsumin global t\u00eb naft\u00ebs bruto. Sipas Agjencis\u00eb Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Energjis\u00eb, Republika Islamike prodhoi 3.45 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i naft\u00eb bruto n\u00eb dit\u00eb n\u00eb janar, duke p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuar m\u00eb pak se 3% t\u00eb furnizimit global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7far\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton se sa do t\u00eb rriten \u00e7mimet?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Revista \u201cThe Economist\u201d identifikon tre faktor\u00eb kryesor\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb se sa i ashp\u00ebr do t\u00eb jet\u00eb paniku n\u00eb tregje dhe sa gjat\u00eb do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E para \u00ebsht\u00eb shkalla e luft\u00ebs. Q\u00eb nga dita e par\u00eb e shk\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb sulmeve, Irani qart\u00ebsisht mb\u00ebshteti v\u00ebmendjen n\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjen e vendeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb Gjirit Persik n\u00eb konflikt. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 sulmeve ndaj objekteve ushtarake amerikane n\u00eb rajon, Republika Islamike sh\u00ebnjestroi gjithashtu portet, aeroportet dhe infrastruktur\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr civile n\u00eb vendet fqinje. Llogaritja \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundshme q\u00eb, nga shqet\u00ebsimi p\u00ebr stabilitetin e tyre, shtetet e tjera do ta bindin SHBA-n\u00eb t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb tryez\u00ebn e negociatave. Disa fusha nafte n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite, Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe dhe Kuvajt jan\u00eb brenda rrezes s\u00eb veprimit t\u00eb raketave dhe dron\u00ebve iranian\u00eb, v\u00ebren analisti Carlos Bellorin i firm\u00ebs konsulente Welligence. K\u00ebto asete jan\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha dhe shum\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t’u mbrojtur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faktori i dyt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebrguar produktin n\u00eb treg. Ngushtica e Hormuzit nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb e mbyllur p\u00ebr transportin detar, madje as gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs Iran-Irak n\u00eb vitet 1980. Nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb do ta zem\u00ebronte qart\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, e cila blen pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb naft\u00ebn e Iranit dhe merr 37% t\u00eb importeve t\u00eb saj t\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuara p\u00ebrmes ngushtic\u00ebs. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, aft\u00ebsia ushtarake e Iranit p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e dyshimt\u00eb. Forcat amerikane ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb heqin \u00e7do bllokad\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb t\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebs brenda disa or\u00ebsh. Megjithat\u00eb, Republika Islamike \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e aft\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikoj\u00eb lundrimin. Rrug\u00ebt alternative kan\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar p\u00ebr industrin\u00eb. Arabia Saudite mund t\u00eb ridrejtoj\u00eb naft\u00ebn p\u00ebrmes tubacioneve. Megjithat\u00eb, edhe me kapacitet t\u00eb plot\u00eb, analisti Jorge Leon i firm\u00ebs konsulente Rystad Energy vler\u00ebson se af\u00ebrsisht 8-10 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb do t\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb pap\u00ebrdorura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00eb fundmi, faktori i tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse Trump do ta arrij\u00eb q\u00ebllimin e tij p\u00ebr ndryshimin e regjimit n\u00eb Iran. Me r\u00ebnien e Republik\u00ebs Islamike, vendi do t\u00eb pushoj\u00eb s\u00eb qeni nj\u00eb burim paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrie rajonale dhe do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet n\u00eb leht\u00ebsimin e sanksioneve q\u00eb kufizojn\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarrjen e tij n\u00eb tregjet globale. Kombinimi i rritjes s\u00eb eksporteve iraniane dhe rreziqeve t\u00eb reduktuara gjeopolitike mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsoj\u00eb tepric\u00ebn e furnizimit dhe ta b\u00ebj\u00eb naft\u00ebn edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb. Skenari alternativ \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit e linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr t\u00eb mbeten n\u00eb pushtet. Kushdo q\u00eb aspiron nj\u00eb pushtet t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm me Khamenei-n mund t\u00eb ndihet i detyruar t\u00eb demonstroj\u00eb forc\u00eb duke e mbajtur t\u00eb mbyllur Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit dhe duke mbjell\u00eb kaos n\u00eb Gjirin Persik. Mes nj\u00eb lufte p\u00ebr pushtet midis fraksioneve konkurruese t\u00eb Trupave t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike, Irani do t\u00eb mbetet nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim rajonal. Prodhimi i naft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb bjer\u00eb, duke i l\u00ebn\u00eb bler\u00ebsit si Kina t\u00eb pasigurt se kush kontrollon furnizimet n\u00eb Iran. Nj\u00eb prim rreziku prej 8-12 dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet globale p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb pacaktuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e vendeve individuale?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SHBA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shtetet e Bashkuara tani jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb vet\u00ebmjaftueshme n\u00eb l\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb para: sipas Administrat\u00ebs Amerikane t\u00eb Informacionit p\u00ebr Energjin\u00eb, vet\u00ebm 17% e energjis\u00eb s\u00eb konsumuar nga amerikan\u00ebt u importua n\u00eb vitin 2024 – niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 40 vjet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerjet n\u00eb furnizimin me naft\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb e vendit. “Nj\u00eb rritje e ndjeshme e \u00e7mimeve globale mund t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb konsumator\u00ebt dhe korporatat amerikane”, shpjegoi James Knightley, ekonomist amerikan n\u00eb ING, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koment p\u00ebr Financial Times.Ky skenar do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb \u00e7mime m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb benzin\u00ebs, duke rritur kostot p\u00ebr konsumator\u00ebt, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve tashm\u00eb po ankohen p\u00ebr kriz\u00ebn e kostos s\u00eb jetes\u00ebs p\u00ebrpara zgjedhjeve vendimtare t\u00eb mesmandatit n\u00eb n\u00ebntor. Sipas Bank\u00ebs Federale t\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebs s\u00eb Dallasit, nj\u00eb rritje prej 10 dollar\u00ebsh n\u00eb \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs s\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar Brent zakonisht rrit \u00e7mimin e nj\u00eb galoni benzin\u00eb \u200b\u200bme 25 cent, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb p\u00ebr disa dit\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Knightley vler\u00ebson se nj\u00eb \u00e7mim prej 100 dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund ta shtyj\u00eb inflacionin vjetor t\u00eb konsumatorit n\u00eb SHBA nga 2.4% n\u00eb janar n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 4% deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2026. Megjithat\u00eb, Rezerva Federale ka vendosur nj\u00eb objektiv prej 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr, kjo do t\u00eb zvog\u00ebloj\u00eb gjasat q\u00eb rregullatori t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit para fundit t\u00eb vitit, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se rritja ekonomike n\u00eb SHBA do t\u00eb frenohet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump mund ta p\u00ebrshpejtoj\u00eb r\u00ebnien e \u00e7mimeve duke shfryt\u00ebzuar Rezerv\u00ebn Strategjike t\u00eb Naft\u00ebs s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb prej 415 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7ish, gj\u00eb q\u00eb paraardh\u00ebsi i tij, Joe Biden, e b\u00ebri pas pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 2022. Por n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, rezerva mbante gati 570 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i. N\u00eb nivelin maksimal t\u00eb shterimit prej 4.4 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7ish n\u00eb dit\u00eb, do t\u00eb kishte zgjatur tre muaj. Pasiguria e shkaktuar nga lufta n\u00eb Iran mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebr shum\u00eb m\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banka Barclays vler\u00ebson se nj\u00eb efekt tjet\u00ebr an\u00ebsor mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje e ndjeshme e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb dollarit. “Ngjarjet n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb rrezik n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb konfliktit t\u00eb zgjatur dhe rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Historikisht, tronditje t\u00eb tilla mb\u00ebshtesin dollarin amerikan”, shpjegoi Themistoklis Fiotakis, nj\u00eb ekonomist n\u00eb Barclays. Banka pret q\u00eb dollari t\u00eb forcohet kundrejt nj\u00eb shporte valutash globale “me af\u00ebrsisht 0.5-1% p\u00ebr \u00e7do rritje prej 10% t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina, India dhe vendet e tjera aziatike<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bler\u00ebs i madh i naft\u00ebs nga Gjiri Persik, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje e madhe e transportit detar do t\u00eb d\u00ebmtonte ekonomin\u00eb e saj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sipas Administrat\u00ebs Amerikane t\u00eb Informacionit p\u00ebr Energjin\u00eb, rreth 84% e naft\u00ebs bruto dhe kondensat\u00ebs dhe 83% e LNG-s\u00eb q\u00eb kaloi n\u00ebp\u00ebr ngushtic\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2024 ishin t\u00eb destinuara p\u00ebr tregjet aziatike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 Kin\u00ebs, destinacionet kryesore t\u00eb eksportit p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, Indin\u00eb, Japonin\u00eb dhe Koren\u00eb e Jugut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto vende ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb nxitura nga rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Analist\u00ebt e Capital Economics v\u00ebrejn\u00eb se nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar Brent n\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb inflacionin global me 0.6-0.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evrop\u00eb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropa do t\u00eb jet\u00eb gjithashtu nd\u00ebr ekonomit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb goditura nga rritja e ndjeshme e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe LNG-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, ndikimi i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Evropiane mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb relativisht i kufizuar, duke pasur parasysh se inflacioni n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb mbetet shum\u00eb n\u00ebn objektivin prej 1.7%. Kjo mund t’i lejoj\u00eb rregullatorit t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb t\u00eb pandryshuar politik\u00ebn e tij aktuale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht rrezikut t\u00eb humbjes s\u00eb nj\u00ebrit prej aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tij m\u00eb me ndikim n\u00eb epok\u00ebn e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb re t\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb me Per\u00ebndimin, n\u00eb form\u00ebn e regjimit t\u00eb ajatollah\u00ebve, Kremlini duket sigurisht si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfitues potencial i nj\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb madh n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si\u00e7\u00a0v\u00ebren<\/a>\u00a0kolumnisti i Bloomberg, Javier Blas , Vladimir Putin do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga lufta fal\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb larta dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs n\u00eb rritje p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn ruse, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn sanksione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur hipotez\u00ebn rreth optimizmit t\u00eb Kremlinit, eksperti citoi nj\u00eb citat nga mediat sociale t\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit special t\u00eb Presidentit rus, Kirill Dmitriev: m\u00eb 28 shkurt, ai shkroi se “s\u00eb shpejti [nafta do t\u00eb kushtoj\u00eb] m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edhe n\u00ebse k\u00ebto pritje jan\u00eb t\u00eb ekzagjeruara, Dmitriev n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi ka t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, v\u00ebren Blas. Rusia tani mund ta ket\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb shes\u00eb miliona fu\u00e7i naft\u00eb – dhe SHBA-t\u00eb ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb mbyllin nj\u00ebrin sy ndaj furnizimit t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj nafte t\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar, p\u00ebr shembull, Indis\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nd\u00ebrsa kjo do t\u00eb forconte ekonomin\u00eb ruse, e cila u p\u00ebrball me shenja krize n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar dhe n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, nevoja p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur rreziqet e nj\u00eb mungese globale t\u00eb shkaktuar nga tensionet n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe se q\u00ebllimi i Kremlinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb pak\u00ebsuar buxhetin e saj ushtarak.\u00c7far\u00eb rreziqesh t\u00eb tjera ekonomike do t\u00eb lindin si rezultat i nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb re?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Konflikti po zhvillohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb tensionuar p\u00ebr tregjet financiare globale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00eb premten, m\u00eb 27 shkurt, aksionet e bankave amerikane p\u00ebsuan r\u00ebnien e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb ndjeshme q\u00eb kur Trump vendosi tarifat n\u00eb prill, mes shqet\u00ebsimeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb kreditimit privat dhe nd\u00ebrprerjeve n\u00eb bizneset kryesore t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aksionet amerikane t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb gjithashtu vazhduan r\u00ebnien e tyre t\u00eb shkaktuar nga inteligjenca artificiale, duke e shtyr\u00eb r\u00ebnien e shkurtit t\u00eb Nasdaq Composite mbi 3%.Nj\u00eb konflikt i zgjatur n\u00eb Gjirin Persik do t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb m\u00eb tej besimin e tregut, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse ngre shqet\u00ebsime se Rezerva Federale do t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb pak gjasa t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb politik\u00ebn monetare. Gjithashtu, kjo mund t\u00eb minoj\u00eb optimizmin midis bizneseve dhe t\u00eb ul\u00eb investimet, argumentoi Tomasz Viladek, kryeekonomist evropian n\u00eb firm\u00ebn e investimeve T Rowe Price, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koment p\u00ebr Financial Times: “Po ndodhin shum\u00eb tronditje n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb. Kemi pasur Venezuel\u00ebn, Groenland\u00ebn, tarifat dhe tani Iranin – t\u00eb gjitha brenda dy muajve.”Megjithat\u00eb, analist\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb mbeten m\u00eb optimist\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh rritjen e fuqishme ekonomike globale gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, pavar\u00ebsisht tronditjeve t\u00eb lartp\u00ebrmendura. “Pavar\u00ebsisht t\u00eb gjitha tronditjeve t\u00eb fundit gjeopolitike, rritja globale ekonomike dhe tregtare ka rezultuar jasht\u00ebzakonisht e q\u00ebndrueshme”, deklaroi Innes MacPhee, kryeekonomiste n\u00eb Oxford Economics, n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb me Financial Times.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mes shk\u00ebmbimeve intensive t\u00eb goditjeve midis SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb dhe Iranit nga ana tjet\u00ebr, rreziqet p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi. Pika kryesore e ndezjes \u00ebsht\u00eb Ngushtica e Hormuzit. Ajo shtrihet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregdetit jugor t\u00eb Iranit dhe mbetet nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb ky\u00e7e e furnizimit me energji nga Lindja e Mesme. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ekonomi"],"yoast_head":"\nSa mund te ndikoje lufta ne tregjet e naftes? - Kosova Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kosovatimes.info\/index.php\/2026\/03\/01\/sa-mund-te-ndikoje-lufta-ne-tregjet-e-naftes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sa mund te ndikoje lufta ne tregjet e naftes? - Kosova Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mes shk\u00ebmbimeve intensive t\u00eb goditjeve midis SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb dhe Iranit nga ana tjet\u00ebr, rreziqet p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi. 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Pika kryesore e ndezjes \u00ebsht\u00eb Ngushtica e Hormuzit. Ajo shtrihet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregdetit jugor t\u00eb Iranit dhe mbetet nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb ky\u00e7e e furnizimit me energji nga Lindja e Mesme. 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